'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has underscored the importance of not equating the victims and perpetrators of terror attacks, highlighting the need for global unity in combating terrorism. Speaking at Raisina Tokyo 2025, Misri expressed appreciation for Japan's support following the recent terror attack in Pahalgam, India. He also cautioned against the trend of some Western countries hyphenating India and Pakistan in the context of their recent military confrontation. Misri further outlined India's economic aspirations and its commitment to becoming a factor of stability in a turbulent world.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said cryptocurrencies are a "threat to macroeconomic and financial stability" and cautioned investors against punting on them, days after the Union government's move to tax the gains made from cryptocurrency trades. In the Union Budget for 2022-23 presented in Parliament on February 1, the government proposed levying a 30 per cent tax on gains made on cryptocurrency trades by investors and the announcement was welcomed by cryptocurrency industry players, saying it legitimises their trades. Das invoked the 17th century 'tulip mania', widely considered to be the first financial bubble, to caution investors, saying the cryptocurrencies do not even possess the value of the exotic flower.
Foreign investors have infused nearly Rs 8,500 crore in the country's equity markets last week, after a phase of heavy outflows earlier in the month, supported by renewed investor confidence, resilient domestic economy and relative insulation from global trade disruptions. During the holiday-truncated week ended April 18, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made a net investment of Rs 8,472 crore in equities.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'As we navigate uncertain waters, a conservative approach to largecap investing could provide a strategic advantage.'
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro and ICICI Bank were also among the Sensex gainers. HCL Tech, UltraTech Cement, Nestle and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
Investor confidence in value mutual funds remains robust, with the category witnessing an inflow of Rs 1,556 crore in January, indicating a shift in their focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
'Increasingly, they treat gold as a financial asset in their portfolio rather than just as jewellery.'
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
'That is the one headline the world is reading about India this week, and it is a potentially damaging story...' 'I don't think a panic mentality has set in, but this story is one that investors and market watchers are absolutely seized with.'
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
618 companies were part of the billion dollar club when the markets reached all-time highs on September 26, 2024. That number has fallen to 500 following a $1 trillion wipeout in India's market capitalisation amid relentless selling by FPIs.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the inflation forecast for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, and vowed to take timely measures to prevent any spillovers of global food and fuel price shocks. Stressing that the Reserve Bank has identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the September retail inflation number may be lower than August and July prints. The headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 4.6 per cent in first quarter of 2023-24 as compared to 7.3 per cent in the same period a year ago.
India's economy is projected to grow between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent in FY26, according to the Economic Survey 2024-25, tabled in Parliament on Friday. The survey highlights that the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a stable external account, fiscal consolidation, and private consumption. It noted that the government plans to strengthen long-term industrial growth by focusing on research and development (R&D), micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and capital goods.
Jaitley said he would stick to the government's existing fiscal deficit target.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
India's headline retail inflation is expected to moderate further in the months to come, as low wholesale inflation will transmit to consumer prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its latest monthly economic review (MER) on Monday. "Inflationary pressures eased in February, with slight moderation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation softening to a 25-month low. "With WPI inflation easing, its transmission to CPI inflation is soon expected," the MER for February said.
Macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of Q1 earnings and global trends are the major factors that would influence trading sentiments in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors would also be a crucial factor in dictating movement in the market. Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for Independence Day.
Weighed down by a weak rupee, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday chose to keep all key interest rates unchanged and asked the government to take urgent steps to reign in the high current account deficit.
RBI interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would guide markets' movement this week, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors and the last batch of Q1 earnings announcements would also guide trends in equities. HSBC PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for the services sector is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
'We will be very, very proactive in providing whatever liquidity requirements are needed.'
The banking system liquidity bounced back to surplus mode after three weeks, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed. This was due to government spending, according to dealers. The liquidity situation could further ease with the disbursement of the last tranche of incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) worth Rs 50,000 crore on Saturday.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
The bad assets or gross NPAs of commercial banks fell to a 12-year low of 2.8 per cent in March 2024 and may go down further to 2.5 per cent by the end of the current fiscal, said the RBI's Financial Stability Report (FSR) released on Thursday. Scheduled Commercial Banks' (SCBs) gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio fell to 2.8 per cent, and the net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio to 0.6 per cent at the end of March 2024. "The asset quality of SCBs recorded sustained improvement, and their GNPA ratio moderated to a 12-year low in March 2024. Their NNPA ratio too improved to a record low," said the June FSR.
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
The loans taken have come down and hence the net capital inflow has reduced.
'There are deeper, underlying, forces at work and we need institutional arrangements to guard against them.'
The economy is likely to grow at about 5.6 per cent in 2014-15 and fiscal and current account deficits no longer pose a threat to macroeconomic stability, India Ratings said on Friday.
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) with a lock-in period performed better than the ones that allow investors to withdraw capital at any time. Close-ended schemes had a median return of 5.62 per cent in December, according to data from industry tracker PMSBazaar. The median returns for open-ended schemes were 3.91 per cent
Jaitley described his three priorities as: strengthening India's firewalls by ensuring macroeconomic stability and prudent fiscal management; driving growth through domestic demand; and reforms to boost economic opportunity.
The chief adviser alleged elections held under Hasina's regime were "rigged blatantly and generations of young people grew up without exercising their voting rights."
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
Retail sales of vehicles across categories in India grew by 11.21 per cent at 32,08,719 units in November, as compared to 28,85,317 units in the same month last year riding on two-wheeler demand, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said in Monday. Retail sales of two-wheelers were at 26,15,953 units last month, as compared to 22,58,970 units in November 2023, a growth of 15.8 per cent buoyed by the festive spillover.
The rate hike in the future is set to be 'calibrated and cautious'.
